The more and more I have gotten used to what people generally reward/value in society versus what is panned, the more I notice a disturbing trend. We expect everything to grow. In general as a society we have no tolerance for anything that just remains the same unless we have a negative association with whatever that is, and then we want it to steadily decline (which I see as the same as positive increase). Take a few examples for instance: Salaries, Stock Prices, Gas Prices, Number of Schools, Number of lanes on the interstate, Airline prices, Job performance, Home sizes, What car you drive, how much kids learn in school, plus many more. Just keep this concept in mind for a while and start noticing expectations which you have and the others around you have and think about it.
Technology seems to be the perfect catalyst for this behavior as well. Its rooted in knowledge (which we also expect to always expand), and seems to be able to grow at an alarming rate because we humans (think that we) have just about mastered the art of efficiently building on previous technologies to product new more powerful, more efficient technologies. Anyone that knows me realizes that I relish this process and true efficient engineering is what I live for. But I need to also step back and analyze the macro-engineering of society as well. In my lifetime, I see the growth of society as a whole as almost an explosion of knowledge, experience, expectations, and even just in terms of population as well.
It all makes me want to ask when will this ever end? Sure, we all learn in math that there is no theoretical concept of an end to anything (such is infinity), but at the same time, the earth is finite. The number of atoms on our planet (while immense) is finite. This may sound silly, but are we going to in earnest think about whether we must as a species take a hard look at our long term plans on this planet? I watch a lot of documentaries as well as interviews on a wide variety of topics. Everyone I hear speak of “the future” speaks of hundreds of years forward.
This feels like apples and oranges to me. Given that the earth is “roughly” 4.5 billion years old and some time around 2 million years ago (or close enough to that for this example; the real argument about when doesn’t matter here) is when we came around and civilizations have been around for at least 10 thousand years, thinking in terms of hundreds of years seems short sighted. Lets illustrate this:
- 4 500 000 000
- 2 000 000
- 10 000
- 200
Lets now put this to another analogy. Lets say that you want to plan a driving trip from San Francisco, CA to Portland, ME. Imagine this trip as your plans for our species. Lets make a quick assumption then for another 10,000 years then. This seems easy since its just doubling how long we know civilizations have been around. Well planning for 200 years (64mi) won’t even get to you Sacramento, let alone out of California. (And this is longer than many even think about. I hear lots of “long term” plans for only 50 years out.) For the hell of it, lets look at the other numbers above as well. Lets say you want to use 2 000 000 as the number and hope that our species can double the time we have been on the planet (again … roughly). Then planning for 200 years (now .32 mi) will only get you from city hall to about market street. If you like completing these analogies, you should know that there is no point in thinking of another 4.5 billion since some say that in at most another billion years, all the water will have boiled off of the earth. (note references 32&33)
Ok, so I spent a lot of time illustrating a point, but I wanted to make sure that it was understood. Let’s recap for a moment. 1. We have a finite amount of time (in our life, on our planet, in our solar system…etc). 2. Our society as a whole is valuing plans and progress over periods ridiculously tiny in comparison to above milestones. 3. Within such comparisons, they are all done on a logarithmic scale (whereas expectations == slight improvement).
So how does any of this add up? How long does it take for society to have built a house of cards around such high expectations before something comes down? We see micro examples of this with the stock market. It goes up and down over the years and it goes up even more based usually on very narrow optimistic parameters. Then it comes crashing down as more people realize how narrow the gains actually were. This happens over and over. Well now expand the same line of thinking to society as a whole. We can survive a crashed market. It is devastating sure, but we will survive.
What happens as a society when we realize that we just can’t learn as fast as we need, can’t grow as fast as we need, can’t produce as fast as we need, and so on? What does a crash of this magnitude map to? To be honest, I can’t honestly tell you. The best analogy may be similar to the lost civilizations we know about such as Greece and Rome. But that seems tiny in comparison to the complexities of today’s world to then. I shiver to think if Idiocracy is anywhere close. I doubt it, but the concept of the unknown has it’s standard fears.
In the mean time, I suppose I don’t expect anyone to go about changing their ways. We need to be on the brink of annihilation as a society before we consider changing. However, I would like it if at least every now and then people would give each other a break for doing “well” rather than doing “fantastic.” I just wish we could all appreciate the efficiency of small successes more than we appreciate the gratification of huge wins, since we won’t be able to maintain such progress forever.
J.P.
P.S. On an unrelated note, I finally thought I had merged all of my music in to one folder, only to find a few more. I am really close though. I am down to 659GB of data that I am trying to sort/merge though which is a few hundred less than a month ago. Its a MUCH larger effort than I ever thought needing several custom software tools I have written as well as several existing tools I have downloaded for both comparing and merging information from files. Its been more than 10 years since I have been this close to a common location for files. (How is this note related? Thinking about how much data I have accumulated in 10 years from drives which were 320MB to drives that are 2TB is an exact correlation to the point I made above.)